考研英语复习需要一点一滴的积累,学习英语不是掌握的词汇量大,语法精准就能够得高分,知识面广、融汇贯通才能够强化你的英语水平。小编希望大家能够多读好文多积累,从而让自己的阅读能力有所提升。下面是英语阅读文章《世界经济》,希望大家在阅读的同时能够进行总结并有所收获。
Fear the hangover
心有余悸
Add all this up and 2015 seems likely to be bumpy. Bears will bet that a surging dollar coupled with euro-zone torpor and a few emerging-market crises will eventually prompt a downturn in America. On the plus side, stockmarkets do not look as frothy as they did in the 1990s: the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is 18, not far above its historical average. Although many big tech firms are investing recklessly, most have decent balance-sheets. And the global financial system is less leveraged and hence less vulnerable to contagion. In 1998 Russia's default felled LTCM, a big American hedge fund. Such knock-on effects are less likely today.
把所有这一切添加起来思考可以想见2015 年很可能是崎岖不平的。大咖们会打赌,一个美元升值加上欧元区迟钝和一些新兴市场的危机最终会促使美国进入经济低迷时期。从有利的一面看,股市不会像他们在上世纪90 年代那样看起来像泡沫:在标准普尔500 指数的价格收益比是18,而不是远高于历史平均水平。尽管许多大型科技公司正在投资硬拼,最有体面的资产负债表。与全球金融体系的杠杆率较低,因此不容易受到传染。1998 年,俄罗斯对美国长期资本管理公司(LTCM)发生了债务违约,这是一家大型美国对冲基金,结果致使该公司垮台。这样连锁反应是不太可能出现在今天。
But if the world economy does stumble, restoring stability will be harder this time round because policymakers have so little room for manoeuvre. Back in 1999 the Federal Reserve's policy rate was around 5%, leaving plenty of scope for cutting when the economy slowed. Nowadays interest rates all over the rich world are close to zero.
但是,如果世界经济不摔跟头,恢复稳定将在这一次变得更为困难,因为政策制定者有那么一点回旋的余地。早在1999 年,美联储的政策利率是5%左右,经济放缓时留出足够的余地去削减利率。现在的利率都在富裕国家接近于零。
The political scene is also different, and not in a good way. At the end of the 1990s most people in the rich world had enjoyed the fruits of the boom: median American wages rose by 7.7% in real terms in 1995-2000. Since 2007, by contrast, they have been flat in America, and have fallen in Britain and much of the euro zone. All over the rich world voters are already grumpy with their governments, as polling numbers and their willingness to vote for protest parties show. If they are squeezed next year discontent will turn to anger. The economics of 2015 may look similar to the late 1990s, but the politics will probably be rather worse.
政坛出现了不利的变化。在20 世纪90 年代,大多数人在富裕世界的尽头尽享繁荣的成果:美国中产阶级工资在1995-2000 年实际上涨了7.7%。自2007 年以来,相比之下,美国工资增长持平,英国和大部分欧元区工资甚至出现下降。各地富国选民已经对他们的政府持不满态度,正如民意测验记录以及他们愿意把票投给抗议党即可看出。如果他们被打压,明年的不满会变成愤怒。2015 年的经济可能类似于20 世纪90 年代末,但政治形势可能会相当糟糕。
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